The first thing to recognise is that there are two very different environments for digital transformation:
Greenfield is simple and frankly you should ONLY be considering an agile approach because it provides early validation that your service works and there are customers who want what you think they want.
In Brownfield environments building software and solving complex problems ALWAYS takes longer (and therefore costs more) than we think it will at the beginning because we only have a high level view of the challenge ahead. I would liken it to estimating the cost for building a house by looking at blueprints, there are too many unknown variables for a builder to accurately predict timelines and costs. Yes, you can get a high level estimate but only when the builder starts work will they understand many of the factors and constraints that drive the true cost and timeline.
Decision makers need to recognise that having an experienced IT professional say with confidence that a project will take X years and cost £Ym before they have started doesn’t mean those costs and timescales are guaranteed or fixed. With every transformation the key variables change:
Which all makes predicting timelines and costs based on past experience incredibly difficult.
But importantly decision makers must agree “What is OUR measure of success?”. Is it that a programme of work came in under budget and on time or is it some measure of the impact that programme made? Finishing a 3 year transformation is great but if there are no efficiencies or gains in customer loyalty/marketshare then was that the best investment? The real discussion is not about money, but rather it’s about value and outcomes.
There is little credible, independent research available for the failure rates of transformation programmes. Why? Because large organisations, especially those that are listed or provide a public service, are careful about their external perception and are therefore more likely to claim a failed programme delivered certain benefits before a change in strategy caused the company to “alter their approach”. In reality it doesn’t matter whether MOST waterfall/agile programmes fail but whether YOUR waterfall/agile programmes fail.
Now, if you want to measure success by outcomes then agile is going to deliver a higher chance of success when properly executed:
But one word of warning before you schedule an early morning “all hands” to tell your teams that agile is the new and only direction – bear in mind that agile programmes fail too. The truth is that the method you use is far less likely to influence success as much as having:
Talking with organisations who want to use agile techniques I sense a fear about whether they are going to get it right and what might happen if they make a mistake …
When most organisations talk about ‘being agile’ they really mean ‘making I.T. agile’… few make changes to the way they structure, run and measure progress…